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Seguimiento Clima actual Global y su previsible evolución

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Re: Seguimiento Clima actual Global y su previsible evolución

Mensaje por AnaPaula el Jue Dic 06, 2012 2:58 am

Gracias karlox por la respuesta sobre las corrientes marinas, a veces creo que el planeta al igual que el ser humano tiene presion alta y baja , como estas corrientes y que si no las tuviera seria muy dificil que pudiera sobrevivri cheers

Gracias Argon por tu aporte, muy completo. Asi estamos logrando desarrollar un tema que sin duda es de interes para muchos de nuestros lectores.

Karlox gracias por tu tiempo en compartir tus conocimientos con nosotros.

saludos y un abrazo fraternal

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Re: Seguimiento Clima actual Global y su previsible evolución

Mensaje por Karlox el Jue Dic 06, 2012 8:05 am

Argon escribió:Que tema más apasionante! !
aquí dejo mi granito de arena
[url=http://fluidos.eia.edu.co/hidrologiaii/articuloseshii/temasvariados/paleoclima/paleoclima.html
http://fluidos.eia.edu.co/hidrologiaii/articuloseshii/temasvariados/paleoclima/paleoclima.html[/quote[/url]]

Gracias Argon, ya en los primeros párrafos de tu link hay una frase que resume lo que pienso respecto al momento actual del Clima con respecto a las variabilidades naturales interaccionando con la huella antropogénica, y dirécta o indirectamente no es sólo CO2 lo que estamos lanzando a la atmósfera, seguimos quemando ingentes cantidades de combustibles fósiles y carbon, con partículas sulfurosas y otras, que a su vez alteran el régimen de precipitaciones y nubosidad sobre zonas enteras del planeta.

La frase resumen:

un experimento geofísico obrado por la humanidad en su propio planeta.

Evil or Very Mad

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Re: Seguimiento Clima actual Global y su previsible evolución

Mensaje por Karlox el Jue Dic 06, 2012 8:28 am

AnaPaula escribió:Gracias karlox por la respuesta sobre las corrientes marinas, a veces creo que el planeta al igual que el ser humano tiene presion alta y baja , como estas corrientes y que si no las tuviera seria muy dificil que pudiera sobrevivri cheers

Gracias Argon por tu aporte, muy completo. Asi estamos logrando desarrollar un tema que sin duda es de interes para muchos de nuestros lectores.

Karlox gracias por tu tiempo en compartir tus conocimientos con nosotros.

saludos y un abrazo fraternal

Así es como funciona Ana Paula... nuestro planeta puede considerarse un sistema semi-cerrado que tiende a buscar el equilibrio, que nunca encuentra, por lo que a mí entender lo más significativo a escala planetaria no sería tanto que la "temperatura media del planeta" suba 1ºC en los próximos, por ejemplo, 50 años. ¿Sabemos leer ese dato? Creo que la mayoría no, o no del todo correctamente.

Ejemplo: Para una temperatura dada media de Tº para un año X, podría la misma reflejar dos (entre infinitos) escenarios bien distintos.

1- Con respecto a las T medias "normales" para cada zona del planeta la subida de 1º es cuasi-uniforme

2- Temperaturas normales en el 80% del planeta ,y un 20% con una anomalía de 8 o 10º.

3- Temperaturas normales en el 80% del planeta, un 10% con +!0º y un 10% con -10º.

Estos son ejemplos lógicos, no datos, que permiten comprender lo poco o mucho que nos dicen los datos manejados. Es mucho más importante ver la distribución diaria, semana, mensual, trimestral y anual de anomalías tanto en las temperaturas oceánicas, superficie y primeros 300-400m, como en temperaturas de la superficie terrestre, como los mapas de datos de temperaturas, humedad y vientos de la troposfera, y hasta el calentamiento o enfriamiento y expansión o contracción del límite de nuestra atmósfera.

Si, por ejemplo, las temperaturas en zonas polares están subiendo en sus medias -aunque sean bajo cero todo el año- y el gradiente de temperaturas entre polos y trópicos y entre estos y el ecuador disminuye, los vientos y las corrientes en chorro se verán alterados, modulando el clima en una dirección...

Hay una teorí Henrik Svensmark que relacciona el nivel de Rayos Cósmicos, el ozono estratosférico (refuerzo o debilidad de la capa de ozono) con la formación de nubes y el albedo de la tierra, que refleja parte de la irradiación solar al espacio, como en zonas nevadas y de hielo, pero también por nubes altas... Parece que la intensidad de los rayos UV son determinantes en estos procesos atmosféricos, y dá mas protagonismo al sol -de probarse la teoría- de lo que pensamos...

Ver información al respecto en la wiki

http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cosmoclimatolog%C3%ADa

Gracias por vuestro apoyo en desarrollar este tema...cheers

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Re: Seguimiento Clima actual Global y su previsible evolución

Mensaje por Karlox el Jue Dic 06, 2012 8:53 am

En el siguiente link podemos ver en secuencia de los últimos 35 dias la evolución del hielo y la nieve en el Hemisferio Norte. De un vistazo vemos como vá progresando el invierno en el Hemisferio Norte. Una vez en la página se pueden configurar los dias y el Hemisferio que queremos visualizar. La nieve y el frio avanzan por Nort América y Eurasia...

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/snow-cover.php?region=nh&begmonth=11&begday=1&begyear=2012&endmonth=12&endday=5&endyear=2012&submitted=Submit

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Re: Seguimiento Clima actual Global y su previsible evolución

Mensaje por Karlox el Jue Dic 06, 2012 8:54 am

No, rectifico, no podemos visualizar en el link anterior el Hemisferio Sur, Solo Alaska y USA,además del Hemisferio Norte...

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Re: Seguimiento Clima actual Global y su previsible evolución

Mensaje por Karlox el Jue Dic 06, 2012 8:57 am

A cambio un resumen de fenómenos extremos climatológicos mundiales para el pasado mes de Octubre

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/extremes/201210.gif

Karlox

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Re: Seguimiento Clima actual Global y su previsible evolución

Mensaje por Karlox el Jue Dic 06, 2012 9:39 am

Y la página definitiva para seguir la evolución de los hielos y nieves en ambos hemisferios

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/

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Re: Seguimiento Clima actual Global y su previsible evolución

Mensaje por Karlox el Vie Dic 07, 2012 8:44 am

Para monitorizar el comportamiento de las corrientes en chorro (Jet Stream) en ambos hemisferios, introducir los datos en el menú de opciones a la derecha: número de dias (poner máximo posible), intervalos (6 horas recomiendo) y se construye el modelo animado.

Las corrientes en chorro son muy determinantes para el pronóstico del tiempo a corto y medio plazo. Recomiendo el link:

http://squall.sfsu.edu/scripts/shemjetstream_model.html

Karlox

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Re: Seguimiento Clima actual Global y su previsible evolución

Mensaje por enrique echegoyen el Lun Dic 10, 2012 7:35 pm

Buenísimos aportes Karlox y compañeros andaba sin internet y me perdí bastante, es como estar en el medio del desierto sin comunicación
Saludos

enrique echegoyen
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Re: Seguimiento Clima actual Global y su previsible evolución

Mensaje por Karlox el Mar Dic 11, 2012 12:32 pm

En el siguiente gráfico se comparan las temperaturas medias globales medidas con las proyecciones oficiales del Panel Para el Cambio Climático desde 2000 hasta 2012, y las modulaciones que según el autor, tanto por variabilidad natural como efecto antropogénico, configurarían los pronósticos más fiables, el autor pronostica que no habrá calentamiento global significativo en los próximos diez años. Esta es una visión opuesta al consenso oficial sobre cambio climático, pero creo que debe ser expuesta y considerada... hay mucho que desconocemos aún...

http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/02/scafetta_model_updated-fig-02_03_2012.png

Karlox

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Re: Seguimiento Clima actual Global y su previsible evolución

Mensaje por Karlox el Mar Dic 11, 2012 12:55 pm

No dejar de explorar el Observatorio de la Tierra de la NASA, página compendio de toda la climatología actual de nuestro planeta. Hacer click en en mapa de interés y se descarga una secuencia gráfica de datos recientes y hasta nuestros dias... imprescindible.

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/GlobalMaps/

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Re: Seguimiento Clima actual Global y su previsible evolución

Mensaje por Karlox el Mar Dic 11, 2012 7:28 pm

Ver en esta animación de las anomalías de temperatura a 20100m (50m) donde se comprueba un episodio de Calentamiento Súbito de la Estratosfera -al final de la secuencia, en los últimos dias- estos Sudden Warming Stratosphere Episodes van asociados a enfriamiento de la troposfera en el invierno-primavera del hemisferio norte -explica el frío extremo de Reino Unido y Europa Central en estos dias, y hasta la aparición de las "nubes nacaradas",como las aparecidas en Escocia estos últimos dias...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp50anim.gif

Karlox

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Re: Seguimiento Clima actual Global y su previsible evolución

Mensaje por Argon el Mar Dic 11, 2012 8:59 pm

Muy buenos aportes compañero.
Yo creo Ana Paula que deberíamos crear un espacio con todos estos links con su explicación , a modo de encontrar más fácilmente la información que queramos buscar.

__________________________________________________________________________________________
Tener la conciencia limpia... es signo de mala memoria;)

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Re: Seguimiento Clima actual Global y su previsible evolución

Mensaje por Karlox el Miér Dic 12, 2012 9:20 am

Argon escribió:Muy buenos aportes compañero.
Yo creo Ana Paula que deberíamos crear un espacio con todos estos links con su explicación , a modo de encontrar más fácilmente la información que queramos buscar.

Procuraré hacer una selección de las páginas más interesantes que vamos a seguir como base para el tema, y ponerlas juntas en un post...

Hay mucho campo para el debate, pues la controversia está en cuánta amplitud-variabilidad térmica, oscilaciones en precipitaciones etc se deben a procesos cícliclos naturales en distintas zonas del globo y cuánto se debe al efecto del hombre. O cómo va a afectar ese factor humano a los procesos naturales...

El entendimiento de la variabilidad natural climática terrestre en períodos de 50, 100,200, 500, 1000, 2000 años.... es fundamental, y siguen llegando datos paleoclimáticos, detectándose siglos de periodos Calidos y siglos de tendencia al frio, sin que pueda verse la mano del hombre en estos períodos climáticos de nuestra Historia como humanos, hasta mediados del siglo XX...

Karlox

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Valoración temporada de huracanes 2012 en el hemisferio norte

Mensaje por Karlox el Dom Dic 16, 2012 9:15 am

La temporada de huracanes del 2012 llega a su fin, se mantiene la tendencia a un elevado número de tormentas y huracanes en el Atlántico Norte pero de intensidad menor. Según informe de la oficina meteorológica del Reino Unido:
http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/


Temporada de huracanes del 2012 llega a su fin
14122012

Este año vimos otra temporada activa en el Atlántico Norte, con 19 tormentas con nombre, de las cuales 10 se convirtieron en huracanes.

Tanto el número de tormentas tropicales y huracanes fueron muy superiores a los promedios de 1980-2010 de 12 y seis, respectivamente. Sin embargo, sólo uno de ellos (Michael) se convirtió en un huracán mayor, que está por debajo de la media de los tres.

Temporada inusual

Ha sido una temporada inusual en muchos aspectos. Este es el tercer año en una fila con 19 tormentas con nombre, que no tiene precedentes en los registros históricos. Sólo una otra temporada - 2005, que vio el devastador huracán Katrina - ha experimentado tormentas nombradas más (28) ya que comenzaron los registros fiables en 1944.

La temporada ha sido también notable por el gran número de tormentas relativamente de corta duración, con siete de los nueve tormentas tropicales que duran sólo dos días o menos. Estas tormentas contribuir a un alto recuento de tormenta, pero relativamente poco a la energía ciclónica acumulada (ECA) - una medida de la fuerza combinada y la duración de todas las tormentas con nombre en la temporada.

Joanne Camp, un pronosticador de huracanes de gran alcance en la Oficina de Meteorología, explicó que el tener tantas tormentas tropicales de vida corta y relativamente débil fue una característica notable de la temporada: "Si nos fijamos en el registro de largo plazo, esto es inusual - pero ha habido una tendencia creciente en los últimos años.

"Es casi seguro que debido a la mejora de la tecnología, tales como los satélites, lo que nos permite observar la evolución en el Atlántico Norte en detalle cada vez mayor. Esto significa que ahora estamos identificando las tormentas que previamente podrían haber pasado desapercibidos ".

Muchas tormentas eléctricas - pero no mucho

Debido a que una proporción tan alta de las tormentas de esta temporada fueron de corta duración y débil, el índice ACE era sólo moderadamente por encima del promedio en 127. El promedio es 104. Muchas temporadas en el registro histórico ha tenido un recuento total muy inferior tormenta tropical, pero mucho más alto índice ACE, por ejemplo, la temporada 2004 registró solamente 14 tormentas con nombre, sino un índice ACE de 225 - casi el doble de la observada en 2012.

El pronóstico de la Oficina Pública se reunió para la temporada de huracanes en el Atlántico Norte, que se publicó en mayo, continuó su racha de proporcionar una buena orientación en el índice ACE - con total real de este año dentro del rango previsto. Sobre el número de tormentas, el total de 19 este año está fuera del rango de pronóstico.

Chris Landsea, Ciencia y Oficial de Operaciones en el Centro Nacional de Huracanes en Miami, dijo: "Debido a que somos ahora más capaces de identificar débiles y de corta vida tormentas tropicales que estábamos a sólo 15 o 20 años, un simple recuento de cuántas tormentas se producen en una temporada no es tal vez la medida más representativa de lo activo que ha sido una temporada. Usando el índice ACE o el número de huracanes podría ser una medida más estable, menos propenso a los cambios en la tecnología durante los últimos 40-50 años ".

Pronósticos experimentales a cargo de la Oficina de Meteorología durante el espectáculo temporada 2012 que no hay habilidad para predecir el número de huracanes. En mayo de 2012 la Oficina de Meteorología pronosticó que el número más probable de los huracanes que se producen durante junio-noviembre 2012 serían seis, con un 70% de posibilidades de que el número estaría en el rango de dos a diez. En el caso de diez huracanes ocurrido.

Tormentas significativas

La tormenta más notable de la temporada 2012 fue el huracán de arena (también conocido como Superstorm Sandy), que se convirtió en una de las tormentas más grandes de la historia, la medición de más de 1000 kilómetros de diámetro. La tormenta dio lugar a 253 muertes (por lo menos 122 de los del Caribe) y se estima que ha causado más de $ 65 mil millones en daños - lo que es el segundo huracán más costoso en la historia de EE.UU., tras el huracán Katrina.


GOES-13 de imagen de color natural del huracán de arena a las 17:45 UTC del 28 de octubre de 2012. CRÉDITO: NOAA / NASA GOES Project.

El Caribe también experimentaron un número de tormentas tropicales durante la temporada 2012. El huracán Isaac causó graves daños en Haití y el este de Cuba antes de tocar tierra en la costa norte del Golfo de los EE.UU.. La tormenta tropical Rafael pasó cerca de Puerto Rico y las Islas Vírgenes Británicas. El huracán tocó tierra en Sandy Jamaica y Cuba antes de dirigirse a la costa noreste de los EE.UU. y Ernesto huracán tocó tierra en América Central.

No hay huracanes mayores (categoría aquellos registrar 3-5 en la escala Saffir-Simpson de huracanes) han hecho recalada en los EE.UU. desde Wilma en el 2005 - una longitud de casi récord de tiempo.

Tendencias a largo plazo

En general, el nivel relativamente alto de actividad de huracanes del Atlántico continúa una tendencia que se inició en 1995, con casi todos los años desde entonces por encima de la media. Para evaluar ciclos de largo plazo en la actividad de huracanes del Atlántico Norte, la Oficina Meteorológica está probando pronósticos experimentales de hasta cinco años por venir.

Aunque esta investigación continúa, los expertos de la Oficina Meteorológica del huracán continuará monitoreando los impulsores de la actividad de tormentas tropicales durante los próximos meses, mientras se preparan el primer pronóstico para la temporada del año que viene, que será publicado en marzo de 2013. El pronóstico del público principal será lanzado en mayo de 2013.

Para más detalles sobre la temporada 2012 se puede encontrar en el informe de verificación de este año (PDF, 1 MB).

Para obtener información actualizada sobre ciclones tropicales en todo el mundo siguen en Twitter @ metofficestorms

Karlox

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La Troposfera

Mensaje por Karlox el Dom Dic 16, 2012 10:03 am

Por su interés copio articulo original con gráficos. Muy didáctico. Al final se incluye traducción aproximada del texto, y a continuación el link:

http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2012/12/12/tropopause-rules/

Las Reglas de la Tropopausa

Tropopause Rules


Posted on 12 December 2012by E.M.Smith

The title is a bit of a play on words. In common U.S. English, there’s a frequent phrase that came, I think, from High School Sports (and eventually made it into movies). In one movie, it involves cats vs. dogs. “Cats Rule, Dogs Drool”.

But I could have causality backwards here. Perhaps the movie came first?

At any rate, this posting has two ‘themes’, if you will. First, the Tropopause dominates what happens (i.e. it “rules” while the rest of the atmosphere is along for the ride). Second, that there are things that drive the tropopause, just like there are “rules of the road”, there are physics rules that tell us how the tropopause will behave. Two sides of one coin. What are the rules that drive the tropopause, and why does that dominate the meaning of the air?

Atmosphere, Stratosphere, Mesosphere, Troposphere


My kingdom for a sphere…

We all know what a sphere is. It is a nice round ball. Radius substantially equal in all directions. The use of “sphere” in all those terms about the air layers of our planet is a lie. I’d like to make it prettier than that, but I can’t. “Reality just is. -E.M.Smith”. It is a pernicious lie that invades our understanding and corrupts the ability to see what is really happening. Yet the constraints of language force me to use those words. OK, but at least we can set a “That is a lie” marker on the “sphere” part of the words. From this point forward, when you see “Stratosphere” think “That’s a ‘polite lie’ and it’s really StratoBand”.

Why say that? Because if you let your mind be ‘trained’ into thinking “sphere” you will never see the reality, or at best see it dimly hiding behind a mental fog of wrong definition. (BTW, this is a technique I frequently use to ‘keep a tidy mind’. When I find the language is lying to me, I ‘flag it’ and create a new internal thought marker – word if you like – to link to that word that ‘clarifies’ it. From that point on, when reading that word, I hear a faint echo of the ‘synonym’ with the right truth in it… Rather like a Senator saying “My Esteemed Colleague” while thinking “That Evil Bastard” ;-)

For the StratoBand in particular, we have a clear visible case that demonstrates the lie in Stratosphere. During the winter, the polar TropoBand is essentially zero and the StratoBand extends to the surface. In essence, the TropoBand ought to be seen as a 3/4 sphere (or so) that wobbles back and forth from one end of the planet to the other. Similarly, the StratoBand ought to be seen as a 3/4 sphere (or so) that is touching one pole in a polar vortex and rising up, spinning as it goes, spreading out toward the other pole – thinning all the way. As the year progresses, this spinning vortex like band shifts from anchored at one pole to anchored at the other (so at some mid-point might well be a momentary sphere…)

You can see that ‘shifting’ in this movie of how net radiation changes over time.

Now we have a much more accurate dynamic mental model of what’s going on. No longer thinking in terms of fixed onion layers, but in terms of a spinning elastic band that surges back and forth from pole to pole. Rising and falling as it goes. That’s more nearly what really happens.

For the Tropo”sphere” it’s even more complex. It rises and falls in bands as it goes from equator toward the warm pole. These are the “Hadley Cells” and “Ferrel Cells” and “Arctic Cells”. How can something be a sphere when it is divided into at least 3 major zonal bands, each of different heights and with different dynamics, with discontinuities between them, and with a major ‘wobble’ back and forth between poles? We really have 3 different TropoBands to think about (or think in terms of).


Tropospheric Bands of Activity

(Details on origin below in end notes.)

OK, given that context:

What IS the Tropopause?


In the various definitions, you get a confusing mush of things. It’s the point where the lapse rate goes from positive to negative. Or it’s the place where the water vapor runs out and ozone begins. Or it’s a particular lapse rate. Or….

All well and good. But…

What does the Tropopause MEAN?

Every physical thing has some meaning. Some hidden truth. Just slapping a definition on something and ‘moving on’ rarely illuminates that meaning. Like saying “Bob is a cop”. OK. We know a little something about Bob. But is he a Narc? A homicide detective? Did he become a cop for the pension or because he likes adrenalin? What is the ‘inner meaning’ of “Bob The Cop”? For the Tropopause we hear “it is where the troposphere ends and the stratosphere begins. As though it is just some definitional artifact of two nice round ball layers.

But it isn’t.

First off, since the StratoBand comes to near ground level in polar winter, so must the TropoPause. It, too, is complicated. Second, since the TropoBandS have various heights, the TropoPause must also. Finally, since a variety of physical properties / markers change AT the TropoPause, it must be indicating something interesting about “what changed?”.

OK, hopefully I’ve gotten the ‘right word think’ into your head… From here on out, I’m less likely to actually force use of words like “StratoBand”… I’m depending on you to think that on your own when you see “Stratosphere”… OK?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stratosphere


Within this layer, temperature increases as altitude increases (see temperature inversion); the top of the stratosphere has a temperature of about 270 K (−3°C or 29.6°F), just slightly below the freezing point of water. The stratosphere is layered in temperature because ozone (O3) here absorbs high energy UVB and UVC energy waves from the Sun and is broken down into atomic oxygen (O) and diatomic oxygen (O2). Atomic oxygen is found prevalent in the upper stratosphere due to the bombardment of UV light and the destruction of both ozone and diatomic oxygen. The mid stratosphere has less UV light passing through it, O and O2 are able to combine, and is where the majority of natural ozone is produced. It is when these two forms of oxygen recombine to form ozone that they release the heat found in the stratosphere. The lower stratosphere receives very low amounts of UVC, thus atomic oxygen is not found here and ozone is not formed (with heat as the byproduct). This vertical stratification, with warmer layers above and cooler layers below, makes the stratosphere dynamically stable: there is no regular convection and associated turbulence in this part of the atmosphere. The top of the stratosphere is called the stratopause, above which the temperature decreases with height.
The stratosphere is simply the place where convection is not important. The place where radiation is the dominant form of heat transfer and where radiative physics matters.

But it’s worse than that. The wiki (and I’ve seen it other places too, so it’s not just “wiki-bias”) says, in essence, that the lower bound of the StratoBand is set by where the UV runs out. Repeating, for emphasis:


The mid stratosphere has less UV light passing through it, O and O2 are able to combine, and is where the majority of natural ozone is produced. It is when these two forms of oxygen recombine to form ozone that they release the heat found in the stratosphere. The lower stratosphere receives very low amounts of UVC, thus atomic oxygen is not found here and ozone is not formed
But we know that during the Polar Winter the bottom of the Stratosphere is lower and at the Equator it is higher. Clearly “ozone formation” and UV anything are greatest in the equatorial summer and lowest in the polar winter. By the reasoning that “ozone done it”, the Stratosphere bottom ought to be LOWEST in the equatorial summer and highest in the polar winter. Besides, as someone with “The Redhead Gene”, I can assure you that a LOT of UV makes it to ground level. Tropical summer, I’ve got 15 to 20 minutes tops at noon, then I’m lobster time…

So that ozone formation / UV description is a RESULT in the Stratosphere, not a LIMIT on the lower bound altitude.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troposphere


The troposphere is the lowest portion of Earth’s atmosphere. It contains approximately 80% of the atmosphere’s mass and 99% of its water vapor and aerosols. The average depth of the troposphere is approximately 17 km (11 mi) in the middle latitudes. It is deeper in the tropics, up to 20 km (12 mi), and shallower near the polar regions, at 7 km (4.3 mi) in summer, and indistinct in winter.
[...]
The word troposphere derives from the Greek: tropos for “turning” or “mixing,” reflecting the fact that turbulent mixing plays an important role in the troposphere’s structure and behavior. Most of the phenomena we associate with day-to-day weather occur in the troposphere.
[...]
The chemical composition of the troposphere is essentially uniform, with the notable exception of water vapor. The source of water vapor is at the surface through the processes of evaporation and transpiration. Furthermore the temperature of the troposphere decreases with height, and saturation vapor pressure decreases strongly as temperature drops, so the amount of water vapor that can exist in the atmosphere decreases strongly with height. Thus the proportion of water vapor is normally greatest near the surface and decreases with height.
In short, the Troposphere is where convection and evaporation / condensation dominate. Driven by ground heating. Radiation simply does not matter here. Any ‘ground heat’ is rapidly taken up by convection and evaporation / precipitation, lofted to the height where radiation takes over, and dumped. We see that every day with the daily temperature cycling in response to 0 to 1400 (ish) W/m^2 solar flux variations.

Now we can start to see what the Tropopause is telling us. It is telling us the point at which convection and precipitation have ‘done their job’ and moved the heat. It is telling us exactly where radiative physics can take over. Where the ‘heat engine’ has run down and mass movement runs out of energy.

A higher tropopause means more heat is landing on the surface. A lower tropopause means less heat is landing on the surface. It’s really that simple. We can directly measure surface heat via tropopause height. We can even see this in no uncertain terms. At the arctic in winter, there is no surface heating. The tropopause crashes into the ground. At the Equator there is strong surface heating. The tropopause is at the greatest height. Yet there is more… Thunderstorms have what is called “overshoot”. (Another broken term, IMHO). The surface heating is so large that a huge run of wet air shoots up and crashes right on through where the tropopause layer ‘ought’ to be. In my view of things, it is simply locally lifting the tropopause at the point were there’s a bit more convective / precipitation work to do do dump some extra heat to the radiative zone… Again, directly reflecting the heat load at the surface below. (This is confirmed, IMHO, by the way storms leave a cool track in their wake that is lacking in convection / precipitation…)

This has implications.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropopause


Since the tropopause responds to the average temperature of the entire layer that lies underneath it, it is at its peak levels over the Equator, and reaches minimum heights over the poles. On account of this, the coolest layer in the atmosphere lies at about 17 km over the equator. Due to the variation in starting height, the tropopause extremes are referred to as the equatorial tropopause and the polar tropopause.
I think the Tropopause guys need to go talk to the Stratosphere guys and “give them a learnin’…” ;-)

Recently, the sun ‘went quiet’ and the atmospheric height dropped. IMHO that is a direct measurement of the change in net surface heating. In response to lower heat input, the convective / precipitation process shortened. In response to lower levels of UV (dramatically lower) the Thermospheric temperature dropped and most likely ozone formation dropped too.

This all changes the ‘race condition’ between water warmth and stratospheric heat dumping. More Infrared and visible light is reaching the surface of the oceans. That means more absorbed in the surface layer to evaporate water. Less UV means less is reaching deeper parts of the ocean to warm the depths. We ought to have less subsurface heat trying to get out of the oceans. Fewer warm pools. More cool surfaces. The ENSO cycle will tend to more cold states and fewer warm states.

And it is my assertion we could measure all this activity ‘net-net’ via looking at the height of the tropopause.

But WHY doesn’t radiation matter in the Troposphere?


It can’t all just be due to a lot of convection and rain, can it?

Well, ‘yes and no’…

We’ve all had the experience of being out on a ‘cold clear night’ and having felt the heat radiating off to space. Especially easy to feel in the desert. And that is your first clue. Under a midwestern cloudy sky on a muggy summer evening, you don’t get much relief. Not until some rains come. When there is enough water, it is water vapor and clouds that dominate. Over most of the planet, there’s always enough water. 70% of the surface (or so) IS water. On land, lots of that has water too. Either in lakes, streams, and snow; or as damp leaves of vegetation. The few places that are not dominated by water stand out as ‘special’. Deserts and “Mediterranean” climate zones. California is one of those. We get cold on summer nights.

“Why” is pretty simple. We have cold water ‘up wind’ of us here in California. That squeezes the water out of the air. Deserts are worse. Nevada gets our already dry air and lifts it up high (wringing a bit more water out on the mountains as snow) and giving Nevada a “high cold desert”.

In some places, that equatorial lifted and dried air has to come back down. At the edge of that equatorial band. Where that air descends, we get a band of desert. Just run a line around the globe and you get deserts at the two latitude bands each side of the tropics. (Where the air lifted in the equatorial zone comes back down, dried by being rained out during the rise.) Chile in South America. Mojave in the north. Sahara in North Africa. Namib and Kalahari deserts in southern Africa. Gobi in China, the ‘outback’ in Australia. It takes two things. The right latitude for those descending dry air flows, and distance from water dampened air. Not far enough from water, you get a ‘Mediterranean’ climate instead. (Found, not surprisingly, right next to the deserts in California, Chile, Australia, The Mediterranean, etc. etc… right next to the water…)

So our first clue is that ‘water matters’.
In the stratosphere there is very little water.

From that tropopause wiki:


It is also possible to define the tropopause in terms of chemical composition. For example, the lower stratosphere has much higher ozone concentrations than the upper troposphere, but much lower water vapor concentrations, so appropriate cutoffs can be used.
In essence, when in a dry desert or frozen arctic, and feeling that radiative heat loss, you are getting a small sample of the Stratospheric regime. THE place where radiation really matters. Since the deserts are a very minor part of the planet surface, they do not dominate our heat gain / loss profile. Since the polar regions are only really tropospheric part of the year, and have poor insolation most of the year, they don’t dominate our heat gain, but do have a lot to do with our heat loss. And it is very clear that the troposphere is the place where convection and the water cycle control things. They fiercely dominate and can be directly observed in the tropopause height and changes.

This movie shows the movement of the tropical water vapor dominated zone as the sun track moves and the related cloud cover changes. The desert zones show up very nicely on the cloud cover movie.

Why This Chart Doesn’t Matter


And that is why this, often waved about and touted, graph is just irrelevant:


Modtran Radiative Forcing on CO2 Double

Original Image

Look carefully at that graph. Notice all those dips and dives, the “CO2 blocked” band and all the rest? Notice that bright green line with the 3.39 W/M^2 added radiative blocking?

Looks pretty grim, doesn’t it. We’re going to be blocking up that radiative window by 3 Watts and slightly shifting the atmospheric transmissivity of that CO2 region. Oh The Horrors!

Now read the title across the top. “Modtran”. It’s a computed model. NOT measured heat flow at that level. “20 km”. It is for a fixed height. From the tropopause wiki:


The troposphere is one of the lowest layers of the Earth’s atmosphere; it is located right above the planetary boundary layer, and is the layer in which most weather phenomena take place. The troposphere extends upwards from right above the boundary layer, and ranges in height from an average of 9 km (5.6 mi; 30,000 ft) at the poles, to 17 km (11 mi; 56,000 ft) at the Equator.
The difference between 20 km and 17 km, especially at the equator where there is a lot of ‘overshoot’ going on from thunderstorms, is just not very significant. The bulk of the air density is in the lower dozen km and that’s where the bulk of the absorbing is going on.

In essence, they are mostly computing the radiation transmissivity of the Troposphere where convection and the water cycle are moving the heat. Where any net change in radiation will be compensated for by more convection, more water transport, a higher tropopause, or any / all of the above. Changing the CO2 transmissivity profile of a band of thunderstorms is just not relevant. It might cause some deserts to be a bit less cold at night, but won’t do anything at all for a polar winter.

Why no impact on a polar winter?

Because the Stratosphere RADIATES the heat away and the stratosphere is just about at the ground in a polar winter and without any water vapor in the way to close that part of the spectral window.


Stratosphere radiation by species

The original of this image is from some paper linked to by the discussion of things here:

http://www.atmosphere.mpg.de/enid/20c.html

It goes on at some great length about how Green House Gases increase the radiative cooling of the Stratosphere. They are throughly convinced that stratospheric cooling is the Evil Twin of tropospheric warming, showing that GHGs are critical to both (so by implication, cooling in the stratosphere endorses warming troposphere). Completely missing the point that the troposphere is dominated by water and convection, so more heat in just means faster transport up. Yet the graph is useful and the discussion is interesting.

The caption reads:


3. Stratospheric cooling rates: The picture shows how water, cabon dioxide and ozone contribute to longwave cooling in the stratosphere. Colours from blue through red, yellow and to green show increasing cooling, grey areas show warming of the stratosphere. The tropopause is shown as dotted line (the troposphere below and the stratosphere above). For CO2 it is obvious that there is no cooling in the troposphere, but a strong cooling effect in the stratosphere. Ozone, on the other hand, cools the upper stratosphere but warms the lower stratosphere. Figure from: Clough and Iacono, JGR, 1995; adapted from the SPARC Website. Please click to enlarge! (60 K)
First, look at that left hand lower edge. See that big red spot? That’s water, dumping heat like crazy at the top of the troposphere. At a height that is determined NOT by that nice flat dashed line of tropopause, but directly by the amount of heat that needs to be dumped! Once again we have a ‘static scored’ model in a dynamic real world. More heat at the surface means more and stronger convection, more and stronger evaporation, and a bigger red spot higher up that graph! Remember that tropical storm “overshoot”? Not seeing it on this graph, are we?… Surges of heat would lead to surges of water across that dotted tropopause line and into the lower stratosphere. That is what we know actually happens.

Now look over at that large orange / yellow / green “cats eye” in the stratosphere that is the CO2 signature. Look directly below it. See that basically empty band of light blue? That is a direct reading on CO2, and it shows that the CO2 is just not doing anything that matters in the troposphere.

From that point, as you move to the right below the tropopause, you find water once again radiating at height, but not as much, in an even larger wavenumber (shorter wavelength). The overall message of this graph is just that in the troposphere, water is everything and CO2 is nothing. We can also add to this graph that convection and evaporation / condensation are major processes in the troposphere and this radiative model isn’t really all that important for surface cooling at all.

In the stratosphere we see some cooling from water vapor, so, little as there is up there, it still does something. However, THE largest blobs of cooling color come from CO2 and ozone. Adding CO2 to the atmosphere causes more radiative heat loss from just those parts of the atmosphere that do radiative heat loss, and does nearly nothing in that part of the atmosphere dominated by convection and evaporation / precipitation. Warming of the surface of the earth increases convection, evaporation, and water transport, and deposits that water and heat higher in the sky; so will dump more heat into the stratosphere (and perhaps more water vapor too … enhancing that water radiative part).

In short, the system is dynamic and has a convection driven lower layer, with a radiative driven upper layer. More CO2 means more radiative heat loss, not less. THAT is why the stratosphere has been cooling (though the upper atmosphere has dropped more on the loss of UV in the solar funk.)

During this solar downturn, the loss of UV overall, and loss of penetrating UV at the ocean surface, has resulted in a lower atmospheric height, and dropping sea temperatures. Soon to show up in lower land surface temperatures. (The snow last year was bad. It will get worse.) Eventually we will re-equilibrate with lower sea temperatures, lower evaporation rates, and lower precipitation rates, with a lower tropopause height. AFTER we dump the last 30 years worth of warm cycle ocean heat.

Along the way, a very cold stratosphere, dropping down the winter Polar Vortex, will cause a fairly strong warm / cold range between poles and the equator. That will cause a ‘loopy jet stream’ as the blobs of cold arctic air slide south and plenty of winter storms as the equatorial heat heads north. Only running down when we’ve cooled the tropics enough to balance the colder poles.

Eventually the sun will wake up again, and enter a new high activity phase. Probably about 20 years on. Then the whole cycle will reverse. More UV, so deeper ocean warming. Gradually building to a warm ENSO cycle and warmer air temperatures. Lots of added tropical storms until the poles ‘catch up’. Warming stratosphere (so a warming polar vortex) as added UV makes more warming aloft. That cycle will continue until the poles ‘warm up again’. Likely in about 50 years.

Odds and Ends


These are some links and bits of information that I found useful, but didn’t fit into the narrative above. Perhaps due to the flow, or sometimes just due to running out of time. I’ve put then here for reference material.

http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/notes/chap01/tropo.html

Has a nice description of the Tropopause. Has a nice picture of how the height changes with latitude too, that we saw above. Tainted only by the use of annual averages instead of showing the dynamic range at the poles. I particularly like this very dynamic picture of the TropoBands nature of the Troposphere:


Tropospheric Bands of Activity

One can clearly see the tropical band where Willis‘ Thunderstorm Thermostat operates. At the other extreme, the polar band where cold air descends from the stratosphere after radiative cooling. In between, the dry descending zone where deserts form after tropical heat was radiated to the stratosphere; and the zone where polar air meets zonal air and makes ‘interesting weather’. ;-) The place where tropospheric water vapor and CO2 get mixed into the stratosphere. We also have the two jet streams seen in static cross section. That’s where the sideways motion happens. When we have a meridional flow (instead of a zonal flow) those jets make more dynamic changes to total mixing area and total length of the descending air mass lines. I think ‘that matters’ to total heat flow…

Stephen Wilde has a model that discusses changes in jet flow here along with some other detail on how ‘things change’.

An interesting quote:


On the other hand, colder regions have a lower tropopause, obviously because convective overturning is limited there, due to the negative radiation balance at the surface. In fact, convection is very rare in polar regions; most of the tropospheric mixing at middle and high latitudes is forced by frontal systems in which uplift is forced rather than spontaneous (convective). This explains the paradox that tropopause temperatures are lowest where the surface temperatures are highest.
This, too, tends to confirm the convection driven tropics and the more placid polar regions dominated by descending air.

http://scienceofdoom.com/2010/04/18/stratospheric-cooling/

Also covers stratospheric cooling.

I have a ‘riff’ on why the lower atmosphere doesn’t radiate effectively that will have to wait. I’ve spent 2 days on this so far and it’s time for dinner… but I’ll do another posting on that topic. It was what started me on the path that lead to this post, and the one from yesterday:

http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2012/12/10/do-temperatures-have-a-mean/

so it’s been a long and complicated couple of days, but worth it, I think. As a ‘clue’: The basic idea is that pressure broadening and fluorescent quenching prevent effective atmospheric radiation in the lower atmosphere. That is why dew forms on metal surfaces in a cold night, but doesn’t just make frozen fog in the air… It involves a bit of quantum physics, but not too much, and some gas dynamics… but just enough that I can’t put it in here in a hour… so gets to wait. Tomorrow, or perhaps after dinner. At this point it is mostly just ‘backing matter’ to the established convecting behaviour of the troposphere.

UPDATE: 12 Dec 2012


In the discussion in comments the topic of heat flow across the tropopause has come up. Again with the bias of ‘static scored radiative model’. I found these three graphs useful for understanding the nature of the tropopause. I picked them up from this article:

http://www.atmosphere.mpg.de/enid/791

The key thing to notice about them is that at about 15,000 meters the temperature hits a minimum (the tropopause) AND the wind speeds hit a maximum ( about 85 knts ) with slower on each ‘side’ of elevation. I just have to think that the conductive and heat flow across a friction layer with 80 knts in the middle and 30 knts just above it will be fairly strong… While the flow will be less vertical and more laminar, it still has a fair enough amount of vertical component to allow for plenty of ‘mixing’ and heat transfer across that band. Though I’m still not seeing much need for it. Mostly you need poleward heat flow, not vertical, moving heat from tropical excess to polar deficit.


Wind speed vs altitude


Temperature vs Altitude


Atmosphere Temperature Pressure profile

Again what we see missing from this kind of chart is the variation from equator to pole. That matters. Yes, this is useful information, for ‘mid latitude’ thinking. But remember to ‘unbias the vision’ and imagine those 80 knt forces headed toward the land surface at the 10,000 foot ( 3,000 M ) average elevation of the Antarctic Plateau … That is where the heat leaves the earth surface and where the fulcrum is set.

In Conclusion


So that’s where AGW has got it wrong. It fails to distinguish between stratospheric as the radiative regime and tropospheric as the convective evaporative regime. It fails to use a ‘dynamic scoring’ that recognizes the changing location of the tropopause based on heat flux as driver. It fails to recognize the hysteresis bound regime based nature of heat flow in a very dynamic, non-radiative troposphere. And, most importantly, it fails to recognize that closing an already closed tropospheric CO2 window does nothing that matters. Water is the active agent below the tropopause, and even here it is not as radiative BLOCK to cooling, but as evaporative transport doing cooling, and as the radiative couple to the lower stratosphere.

More heat doesn’t make a radiative driven runaway greenhouse in the troposphere. It makes a faster running heat pipe moving water vapor to the base of the stratosphere and a faster heat loss from the stratosphere.

In short, they forgot to identify what actually happens before they made their ‘mental model’ and played with it.

....

Traducción aproximada:

Tropopause Rules


Posted on 12 December 2012by E.M.Smith

The title is a bit of a play on words. In common U.S. English, there’s a frequent phrase that came, I think, from High School Sports (and eventually made it into movies). In one movie, it involves cats vs. dogs. “Cats Rule, Dogs Drool”.

But I could have causality backwards here. Perhaps the movie came first?

At any rate, this posting has two ‘themes’, if you will. First, the Tropopause dominates what happens (i.e. it “rules” while the rest of the atmosphere is along for the ride). Second, that there are things that drive the tropopause, just like there are “rules of the road”, there are physics rules that tell us how the tropopause will behave. Two sides of one coin. What are the rules that drive the tropopause, and why does that dominate the meaning of the air?

Atmosphere, Stratosphere, Mesosphere, Troposphere


My kingdom for a sphere…

We all know what a sphere is. It is a nice round ball. Radius substantially equal in all directions. The use of “sphere” in all those terms about the air layers of our planet is a lie. I’d like to make it prettier than that, but I can’t. “Reality just is. -E.M.Smith”. It is a pernicious lie that invades our understanding and corrupts the ability to see what is really happening. Yet the constraints of language force me to use those words. OK, but at least we can set a “That is a lie” marker on the “sphere” part of the words. From this point forward, when you see “Stratosphere” think “That’s a ‘polite lie’ and it’s really StratoBand”.

Why say that? Because if you let your mind be ‘trained’ into thinking “sphere” you will never see the reality, or at best see it dimly hiding behind a mental fog of wrong definition. (BTW, this is a technique I frequently use to ‘keep a tidy mind’. When I find the language is lying to me, I ‘flag it’ and create a new internal thought marker – word if you like – to link to that word that ‘clarifies’ it. From that point on, when reading that word, I hear a faint echo of the ‘synonym’ with the right truth in it… Rather like a Senator saying “My Esteemed Colleague” while thinking “That Evil Bastard” ;-)

For the StratoBand in particular, we have a clear visible case that demonstrates the lie in Stratosphere. During the winter, the polar TropoBand is essentially zero and the StratoBand extends to the surface. In essence, the TropoBand ought to be seen as a 3/4 sphere (or so) that wobbles back and forth from one end of the planet to the other. Similarly, the StratoBand ought to be seen as a 3/4 sphere (or so) that is touching one pole in a polar vortex and rising up, spinning as it goes, spreading out toward the other pole – thinning all the way. As the year progresses, this spinning vortex like band shifts from anchored at one pole to anchored at the other (so at some mid-point might well be a momentary sphere…)

You can see that ‘shifting’ in this movie of how net radiation changes over time.

Now we have a much more accurate dynamic mental model of what’s going on. No longer thinking in terms of fixed onion layers, but in terms of a spinning elastic band that surges back and forth from pole to pole. Rising and falling as it goes. That’s more nearly what really happens.

For the Tropo”sphere” it’s even more complex. It rises and falls in bands as it goes from equator toward the warm pole. These are the “Hadley Cells” and “Ferrel Cells” and “Arctic Cells”. How can something be a sphere when it is divided into at least 3 major zonal bands, each of different heights and with different dynamics, with discontinuities between them, and with a major ‘wobble’ back and forth between poles? We really have 3 different TropoBands to think about (or think in terms of).


Tropospheric Bands of Activity

(Details on origin below in end notes.)

OK, given that context:

What IS the Tropopause?


In the various definitions, you get a confusing mush of things. It’s the point where the lapse rate goes from positive to negative. Or it’s the place where the water vapor runs out and ozone begins. Or it’s a particular lapse rate. Or….

All well and good. But…

What does the Tropopause MEAN?

Every physical thing has some meaning. Some hidden truth. Just slapping a definition on something and ‘moving on’ rarely illuminates that meaning. Like saying “Bob is a cop”. OK. We know a little something about Bob. But is he a Narc? A homicide detective? Did he become a cop for the pension or because he likes adrenalin? What is the ‘inner meaning’ of “Bob The Cop”? For the Tropopause we hear “it is where the troposphere ends and the stratosphere begins. As though it is just some definitional artifact of two nice round ball layers.

But it isn’t.

First off, since the StratoBand comes to near ground level in polar winter, so must the TropoPause. It, too, is complicated. Second, since the TropoBandS have various heights, the TropoPause must also. Finally, since a variety of physical properties / markers change AT the TropoPause, it must be indicating something interesting about “what changed?”.

OK, hopefully I’ve gotten the ‘right word think’ into your head… From here on out, I’m less likely to actually force use of words like “StratoBand”… I’m depending on you to think that on your own when you see “Stratosphere”… OK?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stratosphere


Within this layer, temperature increases as altitude increases (see temperature inversion); the top of the stratosphere has a temperature of about 270 K (−3°C or 29.6°F), just slightly below the freezing point of water. The stratosphere is layered in temperature because ozone (O3) here absorbs high energy UVB and UVC energy waves from the Sun and is broken down into atomic oxygen (O) and diatomic oxygen (O2). Atomic oxygen is found prevalent in the upper stratosphere due to the bombardment of UV light and the destruction of both ozone and diatomic oxygen. The mid stratosphere has less UV light passing through it, O and O2 are able to combine, and is where the majority of natural ozone is produced. It is when these two forms of oxygen recombine to form ozone that they release the heat found in the stratosphere. The lower stratosphere receives very low amounts of UVC, thus atomic oxygen is not found here and ozone is not formed (with heat as the byproduct). This vertical stratification, with warmer layers above and cooler layers below, makes the stratosphere dynamically stable: there is no regular convection and associated turbulence in this part of the atmosphere. The top of the stratosphere is called the stratopause, above which the temperature decreases with height.
The stratosphere is simply the place where convection is not important. The place where radiation is the dominant form of heat transfer and where radiative physics matters.

But it’s worse than that. The wiki (and I’ve seen it other places too, so it’s not just “wiki-bias”) says, in essence, that the lower bound of the StratoBand is set by where the UV runs out. Repeating, for emphasis:


The mid stratosphere has less UV light passing through it, O and O2 are able to combine, and is where the majority of natural ozone is produced. It is when these two forms of oxygen recombine to form ozone that they release the heat found in the stratosphere. The lower stratosphere receives very low amounts of UVC, thus atomic oxygen is not found here and ozone is not formed
But we know that during the Polar Winter the bottom of the Stratosphere is lower and at the Equator it is higher. Clearly “ozone formation” and UV anything are greatest in the equatorial summer and lowest in the polar winter. By the reasoning that “ozone done it”, the Stratosphere bottom ought to be LOWEST in the equatorial summer and highest in the polar winter. Besides, as someone with “The Redhead Gene”, I can assure you that a LOT of UV makes it to ground level. Tropical summer, I’ve got 15 to 20 minutes tops at noon, then I’m lobster time…

So that ozone formation / UV description is a RESULT in the Stratosphere, not a LIMIT on the lower bound altitude.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troposphere


The troposphere is the lowest portion of Earth’s atmosphere. It contains approximately 80% of the atmosphere’s mass and 99% of its water vapor and aerosols. The average depth of the troposphere is approximately 17 km (11 mi) in the middle latitudes. It is deeper in the tropics, up to 20 km (12 mi), and shallower near the polar regions, at 7 km (4.3 mi) in summer, and indistinct in winter.
[...]
The word troposphere derives from the Greek: tropos for “turning” or “mixing,” reflecting the fact that turbulent mixing plays an important role in the troposphere’s structure and behavior. Most of the phenomena we associate with day-to-day weather occur in the troposphere.
[...]
The chemical composition of the troposphere is essentially uniform, with the notable exception of water vapor. The source of water vapor is at the surface through the processes of evaporation and transpiration. Furthermore the temperature of the troposphere decreases with height, and saturation vapor pressure decreases strongly as temperature drops, so the amount of water vapor that can exist in the atmosphere decreases strongly with height. Thus the proportion of water vapor is normally greatest near the surface and decreases with height.
In short, the Troposphere is where convection and evaporation / condensation dominate. Driven by ground heating. Radiation simply does not matter here. Any ‘ground heat’ is rapidly taken up by convection and evaporation / precipitation, lofted to the height where radiation takes over, and dumped. We see that every day with the daily temperature cycling in response to 0 to 1400 (ish) W/m^2 solar flux variations.

Now we can start to see what the Tropopause is telling us. It is telling us the point at which convection and precipitation have ‘done their job’ and moved the heat. It is telling us exactly where radiative physics can take over. Where the ‘heat engine’ has run down and mass movement runs out of energy.

A higher tropopause means more heat is landing on the surface. A lower tropopause means less heat is landing on the surface. It’s really that simple. We can directly measure surface heat via tropopause height. We can even see this in no uncertain terms. At the arctic in winter, there is no surface heating. The tropopause crashes into the ground. At the Equator there is strong surface heating. The tropopause is at the greatest height. Yet there is more… Thunderstorms have what is called “overshoot”. (Another broken term, IMHO). The surface heating is so large that a huge run of wet air shoots up and crashes right on through where the tropopause layer ‘ought’ to be. In my view of things, it is simply locally lifting the tropopause at the point were there’s a bit more convective / precipitation work to do do dump some extra heat to the radiative zone… Again, directly reflecting the heat load at the surface below. (This is confirmed, IMHO, by the way storms leave a cool track in their wake that is lacking in convection / precipitation…)

This has implications.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropopause


Since the tropopause responds to the average temperature of the entire layer that lies underneath it, it is at its peak levels over the Equator, and reaches minimum heights over the poles. On account of this, the coolest layer in the atmosphere lies at about 17 km over the equator. Due to the variation in starting height, the tropopause extremes are referred to as the equatorial tropopause and the polar tropopause.
I think the Tropopause guys need to go talk to the Stratosphere guys and “give them a learnin’…” ;-)

Recently, the sun ‘went quiet’ and the atmospheric height dropped. IMHO that is a direct measurement of the change in net surface heating. In response to lower heat input, the convective / precipitation process shortened. In response to lower levels of UV (dramatically lower) the Thermospheric temperature dropped and most likely ozone formation dropped too.

This all changes the ‘race condition’ between water warmth and stratospheric heat dumping. More Infrared and visible light is reaching the surface of the oceans. That means more absorbed in the surface layer to evaporate water. Less UV means less is reaching deeper parts of the ocean to warm the depths. We ought to have less subsurface heat trying to get out of the oceans. Fewer warm pools. More cool surfaces. The ENSO cycle will tend to more cold states and fewer warm states.

And it is my assertion we could measure all this activity ‘net-net’ via looking at the height of the tropopause.

But WHY doesn’t radiation matter in the Troposphere?


It can’t all just be due to a lot of convection and rain, can it?

Well, ‘yes and no’…

We’ve all had the experience of being out on a ‘cold clear night’ and having felt the heat radiating off to space. Especially easy to feel in the desert. And that is your first clue. Under a midwestern cloudy sky on a muggy summer evening, you don’t get much relief. Not until some rains come. When there is enough water, it is water vapor and clouds that dominate. Over most of the planet, there’s always enough water. 70% of the surface (or so) IS water. On land, lots of that has water too. Either in lakes, streams, and snow; or as damp leaves of vegetation. The few places that are not dominated by water stand out as ‘special’. Deserts and “Mediterranean” climate zones. California is one of those. We get cold on summer nights.

“Why” is pretty simple. We have cold water ‘up wind’ of us here in California. That squeezes the water out of the air. Deserts are worse. Nevada gets our already dry air and lifts it up high (wringing a bit more water out on the mountains as snow) and giving Nevada a “high cold desert”.

In some places, that equatorial lifted and dried air has to come back down. At the edge of that equatorial band. Where that air descends, we get a band of desert. Just run a line around the globe and you get deserts at the two latitude bands each side of the tropics. (Where the air lifted in the equatorial zone comes back down, dried by being rained out during the rise.) Chile in South America. Mojave in the north. Sahara in North Africa. Namib and Kalahari deserts in southern Africa. Gobi in China, the ‘outback’ in Australia. It takes two things. The right latitude for those descending dry air flows, and distance from water dampened air. Not far enough from water, you get a ‘Mediterranean’ climate instead. (Found, not surprisingly, right next to the deserts in California, Chile, Australia, The Mediterranean, etc. etc… right next to the water…)

So our first clue is that ‘water matters’.
In the stratosphere there is very little water.

From that tropopause wiki:


It is also possible to define the tropopause in terms of chemical composition. For example, the lower stratosphere has much higher ozone concentrations than the upper troposphere, but much lower water vapor concentrations, so appropriate cutoffs can be used.
In essence, when in a dry desert or frozen arctic, and feeling that radiative heat loss, you are getting a small sample of the Stratospheric regime. THE place where radiation really matters. Since the deserts are a very minor part of the planet surface, they do not dominate our heat gain / loss profile. Since the polar regions are only really tropospheric part of the year, and have poor insolation most of the year, they don’t dominate our heat gain, but do have a lot to do with our heat loss. And it is very clear that the troposphere is the place where convection and the water cycle control things. They fiercely dominate and can be directly observed in the tropopause height and changes.

This movie shows the movement of the tropical water vapor dominated zone as the sun track moves and the related cloud cover changes. The desert zones show up very nicely on the cloud cover movie.

Why This Chart Doesn’t Matter


And that is why this, often waved about and touted, graph is just irrelevant:


Modtran Radiative Forcing on CO2 Double

Original Image

Look carefully at that graph. Notice all those dips and dives, the “CO2 blocked” band and all the rest? Notice that bright green line with the 3.39 W/M^2 added radiative blocking?

Looks pretty grim, doesn’t it. We’re going to be blocking up that radiative window by 3 Watts and slightly shifting the atmospheric transmissivity of that CO2 region. Oh The Horrors!

Now read the title across the top. “Modtran”. It’s a computed model. NOT measured heat flow at that level. “20 km”. It is for a fixed height. From the tropopause wiki:


The troposphere is one of the lowest layers of the Earth’s atmosphere; it is located right above the planetary boundary layer, and is the layer in which most weather phenomena take place. The troposphere extends upwards from right above the boundary layer, and ranges in height from an average of 9 km (5.6 mi; 30,000 ft) at the poles, to 17 km (11 mi; 56,000 ft) at the Equator.
The difference between 20 km and 17 km, especially at the equator where there is a lot of ‘overshoot’ going on from thunderstorms, is just not very significant. The bulk of the air density is in the lower dozen km and that’s where the bulk of the absorbing is going on.

In essence, they are mostly computing the radiation transmissivity of the Troposphere where convection and the water cycle are moving the heat. Where any net change in radiation will be compensated for by more convection, more water transport, a higher tropopause, or any / all of the above. Changing the CO2 transmissivity profile of a band of thunderstorms is just not relevant. It might cause some deserts to be a bit less cold at night, but won’t do anything at all for a polar winter.

Why no impact on a polar winter?

Because the Stratosphere RADIATES the heat away and the stratosphere is just about at the ground in a polar winter and without any water vapor in the way to close that part of the spectral window.


Stratosphere radiation by species

The original of this image is from some paper linked to by the discussion of things here:

http://www.atmosphere.mpg.de/enid/20c.html

It goes on at some great length about how Green House Gases increase the radiative cooling of the Stratosphere. They are throughly convinced that stratospheric cooling is the Evil Twin of tropospheric warming, showing that GHGs are critical to both (so by implication, cooling in the stratosphere endorses warming troposphere). Completely missing the point that the troposphere is dominated by water and convection, so more heat in just means faster transport up. Yet the graph is useful and the discussion is interesting.

The caption reads:


3. Stratospheric cooling rates: The picture shows how water, cabon dioxide and ozone contribute to longwave cooling in the stratosphere. Colours from blue through red, yellow and to green show increasing cooling, grey areas show warming of the stratosphere. The tropopause is shown as dotted line (the troposphere below and the stratosphere above). For CO2 it is obvious that there is no cooling in the troposphere, but a strong cooling effect in the stratosphere. Ozone, on the other hand, cools the upper stratosphere but warms the lower stratosphere. Figure from: Clough and Iacono, JGR, 1995; adapted from the SPARC Website. Please click to enlarge! (60 K)
First, look at that left hand lower edge. See that big red spot? That’s water, dumping heat like crazy at the top of the troposphere. At a height that is determined NOT by that nice flat dashed line of tropopause, but directly by the amount of heat that needs to be dumped! Once again we have a ‘static scored’ model in a dynamic real world. More heat at the surface means more and stronger convection, more and stronger evaporation, and a bigger red spot higher up that graph! Remember that tropical storm “overshoot”? Not seeing it on this graph, are we?… Surges of heat would lead to surges of water across that dotted tropopause line and into the lower stratosphere. That is what we know actually happens.

Now look over at that large orange / yellow / green “cats eye” in the stratosphere that is the CO2 signature. Look directly below it. See that basically empty band of light blue? That is a direct reading on CO2, and it shows that the CO2 is just not doing anything that matters in the troposphere.

From that point, as you move to the right below the tropopause, you find water once again radiating at height, but not as much, in an even larger wavenumber (shorter wavelength). The overall message of this graph is just that in the troposphere, water is everything and CO2 is nothing. We can also add to this graph that convection and evaporation / condensation are major processes in the troposphere and this radiative model isn’t really all that important for surface cooling at all.

In the stratosphere we see some cooling from water vapor, so, little as there is up there, it still does something. However, THE largest blobs of cooling color come from CO2 and ozone. Adding CO2 to the atmosphere causes more radiative heat loss from just those parts of the atmosphere that do radiative heat loss, and does nearly nothing in that part of the atmosphere dominated by convection and evaporation / precipitation. Warming of the surface of the earth increases convection, evaporation, and water transport, and deposits that water and heat higher in the sky; so will dump more heat into the stratosphere (and perhaps more water vapor too … enhancing that water radiative part).

In short, the system is dynamic and has a convection driven lower layer, with a radiative driven upper layer. More CO2 means more radiative heat loss, not less. THAT is why the stratosphere has been cooling (though the upper atmosphere has dropped more on the loss of UV in the solar funk.)

During this solar downturn, the loss of UV overall, and loss of penetrating UV at the ocean surface, has resulted in a lower atmospheric height, and dropping sea temperatures. Soon to show up in lower land surface temperatures. (The snow last year was bad. It will get worse.) Eventually we will re-equilibrate with lower sea temperatures, lower evaporation rates, and lower precipitation rates, with a lower tropopause height. AFTER we dump the last 30 years worth of warm cycle ocean heat.

Along the way, a very cold stratosphere, dropping down the winter Polar Vortex, will cause a fairly strong warm / cold range between poles and the equator. That will cause a ‘loopy jet stream’ as the blobs of cold arctic air slide south and plenty of winter storms as the equatorial heat heads north. Only running down when we’ve cooled the tropics enough to balance the colder poles.

Eventually the sun will wake up again, and enter a new high activity phase. Probably about 20 years on. Then the whole cycle will reverse. More UV, so deeper ocean warming. Gradually building to a warm ENSO cycle and warmer air temperatures. Lots of added tropical storms until the poles ‘catch up’. Warming stratosphere (so a warming polar vortex) as added UV makes more warming aloft. That cycle will continue until the poles ‘warm up again’. Likely in about 50 years.

Odds and Ends


These are some links and bits of information that I found useful, but didn’t fit into the narrative above. Perhaps due to the flow, or sometimes just due to running out of time. I’ve put then here for reference material.

http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/notes/chap01/tropo.html

Has a nice description of the Tropopause. Has a nice picture of how the height changes with latitude too, that we saw above. Tainted only by the use of annual averages instead of showing the dynamic range at the poles. I particularly like this very dynamic picture of the TropoBands nature of the Troposphere:


Tropospheric Bands of Activity

One can clearly see the tropical band where Willis‘ Thunderstorm Thermostat operates. At the other extreme, the polar band where cold air descends from the stratosphere after radiative cooling. In between, the dry descending zone where deserts form after tropical heat was radiated to the stratosphere; and the zone where polar air meets zonal air and makes ‘interesting weather’. ;-) The place where tropospheric water vapor and CO2 get mixed into the stratosphere. We also have the two jet streams seen in static cross section. That’s where the sideways motion happens. When we have a meridional flow (instead of a zonal flow) those jets make more dynamic changes to total mixing area and total length of the descending air mass lines. I think ‘that matters’ to total heat flow…

Stephen Wilde has a model that discusses changes in jet flow here along with some other detail on how ‘things change’.

An interesting quote:

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Re: Seguimiento Clima actual Global y su previsible evolución

Mensaje por Karlox el Dom Dic 16, 2012 11:24 am

Inviernos más duros por venir?

http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/270#comment-form

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Re: Seguimiento Clima actual Global y su previsible evolución

Mensaje por Karlox el Dom Dic 16, 2012 11:25 am

Una vez en el link anterior seleccionar idioma...

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Re: Seguimiento Clima actual Global y su previsible evolución

Mensaje por AnaPaula el Dom Dic 16, 2012 1:36 pm

Estimado karlox un gusto de saludarte.¡¡ veo que estas haciendo un excelente y dedicado trabajo , ( tratare de ayudar en la traduccion amigo )

Sabes ? me gustaria saber , si me puedieras ayudar a aclarar ¿ como se rpoducen los ciclones o huracanes...? ... mira se que la fecha en que estos fenomenos se producen es de marzo a noviembre, pero el tifon eva se esta produciendo en estos momento en fiji, y con vientos de 200 km por hora.

No se que tan normal es ya en esta fecha esos ciclones ( como se les llama ahi, ) pero es un monstruo de huracan, segun mi entender. Son pocos los que he visto con vientos de esa magnitud...

salludos compañero espero me puedas ayudar

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Re: Seguimiento Clima actual Global y su previsible evolución

Mensaje por AnaPaula el Dom Dic 16, 2012 1:43 pm

http://translate.google.cl/translate?hl=es-419&sl=en&tl=es&u=http%3A%2F%2Fchiefio.wordpress.com%2F2012%2F12%2F12%2Ftropopause-rules%2F

Aqui dejo el link de karlox traducido al español¡¡¡ ya he empezado a leerlo detenidamente¡¡¡

gracias karlox

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Re: Seguimiento Clima actual Global y su previsible evolución

Mensaje por Karlox el Dom Dic 16, 2012 4:57 pm

AnaPaula escribió:http://translate.google.cl/translate?hl=es-419&sl=en&tl=es&u=http%3A%2F%2Fchiefio.wordpress.com%2F2012%2F12%2F12%2Ftropopause-rules%2F

Aqui dejo el link de karlox traducido al español¡¡¡ ya he empezado a leerlo detenidamente¡¡¡

gracias karlox

Gracias Ana Paula! Es mucho y no siempre fácil de comprender -pero es que estamos todos aprendiendo, que es de lo que se trata...

Deseo aclarar que muchas de los artículos y ensayos a los que me refiero están siendo publicados en el seno de un debate rabioso y sangriento, con filtraciones incluidas tipo wikileaks, pero con respecto al IPCC o Panel Internacional del Cambio Climático... hay un debate científico, pero también político, y no siempre es fácil no confundirse. Por lo tanto, y por honestidad ante posibles lectores, quiero dar a conocer estas dos posturas -por resumir en dos, que son más- y que difieren básicamente en ponderar en qué grado es el hombre responsable del cambio climático, y en qué parte son factores de variabilidad natural del clima de nuestra tierra que estamos apenas aprendiendo a conocer...

Muchas de las referencias que aporto son las que sustentan la teoría de que el calentamiento producido en la segunda mitad del siglo XX fué básicamente producido por variabilidad climática "normal", como normal sería el entrar ahora en unas décadas de enfriamiento... y luego está el relaccionar todo eso con el sol, los planetas y sus ciclos... pero esta parte es aún motivo de discusión científica, por lo que no deberíamos posicionarnos por motivos ideológicos... yo intento no hacerlo, ser siempre crítico con lo que leo y me cuentan, investigar -a un nivel básico- y poco a poco ir conformando una opinión propia, no prestada... Este debate, en cualquier caso, si se lleva con un mínimo nivel es fuente de sorpresas y nuevos conocimientos, que seguiré con gusto compartiendo.

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Temporada de ciclones en Fiji

Mensaje por Karlox el Dom Dic 16, 2012 5:08 pm

AnaPaula escribió:Estimado karlox un gusto de saludarte.¡¡ veo que estas haciendo un excelente y dedicado trabajo , ( tratare de ayudar en la traduccion amigo )

Sabes ? me gustaria saber , si me puedieras ayudar a aclarar ¿ como se rpoducen los ciclones o huracanes...? ... mira se que la fecha en que estos fenomenos se producen es de marzo a noviembre, pero el tifon eva se esta produciendo en estos momento en fiji, y con vientos de 200 km por hora.

No se que tan normal es ya en esta fecha esos ciclones ( como se les llama ahi, ) pero es un monstruo de huracan, segun mi entender. Son pocos los que he visto con vientos de esa magnitud...

salludos compañero espero me puedas ayudar

Encantado AnaPaula, la temporada de huracanes en el hemisferio norte se dá por terminada, ver enlace al resumen de la oficina meteo del Reino Unido al respecto unos post más atrás.

Por el link que adjunto parece ser que la temporada de ciclones en el Pacífico Sur empieza ahora

http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/Media%20release_2012_2013%20TC%20Season%20Outlook_Oct%202012.pdf

conclusión
7 a 10 ciclones tropicales se espera que ocurran en el CMRE de Nadi-TCC durante la temporada AOR
2012/13 En promedio, para todas las 43 temporadas de 1969/70 a 2011/12, 7,4 ciclones
suele ocurrir, 6,6 durante La Niña y las estaciones neutrales, y 8,7 en las estaciones de El Niño. un análogo de doce (12) temporadas con similares condiciones atmosféricas y oceánicas se utilizó para este
punto de vista.
Una versión detallada de la Perspectiva Cyclone temporada 2012/13 emitida por el Tropical Fiji
Servicio Meteorológico está disponible en el sitio web FMS
Para Fiji, uno o dos (1-2) TC se puede esperar de esta temporada, de los cuales uno (1) puede alcanzar o
exceder de categoría 3. Con el área cerca de la génesis Dateline, hay un alto
probabilidad de que las CT se acercará a Fiji de entre el noreste y noroeste. para
los que pasan cerca de las del país, nuboso asociado activo y bandas de lluvia pueden afectar
Fiji y causar fuertes lluvias y posibles inundaciones, incluyendo inundaciones del mar de zonas costeras bajas
Además, debe tenerse en cuenta que TCs o depresiones tropicales, han causado pérdidas de vidas y
daños graves a nuestras comunidades en el pasado. Por esta razón, es fundamental que todas las comunidades preste atención a las advertencias y actuar con responsabilidad, para salvar vidas y propiedades.
La información proporcionada debe ser entendido como una orientación y requiere de expertos
interpretación. El número probable de los ciclones tropicales es meramente indicativa. Se espera que los
el número total de ciclones tropicales estará en la vecindad de los valores indicados, y no
necesariamente dentro del rango dado.
Más información
www.met.gov.fj.

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Re: Seguimiento Clima actual Global y su previsible evolución

Mensaje por Karlox el Dom Dic 16, 2012 5:15 pm

HURRICANE WARNING 039 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 16/1301 UTC 2012 UTC.
Me volví loco buscando Eva geek y era Evans...:

http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/20008.txt


SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN CENTRE 947HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6
SOUTH 179.3 EAST AT 161200 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 15.6S 179.3E AT 161200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 11 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE, OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN NW QUADRANT AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN NE QUADRANT.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 16.9S 177.8E AT 170000 UTC
AND NEAR 18.1S 176.7E AT 171200 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 038

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Re: Seguimiento Clima actual Global y su previsible evolución

Mensaje por Karlox el Dom Dic 16, 2012 5:23 pm

Más informacion -meteo Australia- sobre los ciclones y su génesis, la temporada de ciclones empezó el 1 de noviembre. Ver primero en inglés con las ilustraciones, luego texto en español.

http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/about/

¿Qué es un ciclón tropical?

Los ciclones tropicales son sistemas de baja presión que se forman sobre las cálidas aguas tropicales y tiene fuertes vientos (vientos sostenidos de 63 km / ho más y rachas superiores a 90 km / h), cerca del centro. Técnicamente se define como un sistema no frontal de baja presión de escala sinóptica en desarrollo sobre las aguas cálidas con convección organizada y una velocidad media del viento máxima de 34 nudos o más se extienda más de la mitad del camino alrededor cerca del centro y que persiste durante al menos seis horas .

Los fuertes vientos pueden extenderse cientos de kilómetros desde el centro del ciclón. Si los vientos alrededor del centro de alcanzar 118 kmh (rachas superiores a 165 kmh). a continuación, el sistema se denomina un ciclón tropical severo. Estos se conocen como huracanes o tifones en otros países.

El ojo circular o el centro de un ciclón tropical es una zona caracterizada por vientos ligeros y con frecuencia por los cielos despejados. Diámetros oculares son normalmente 40 km, pero puede variar desde menos de 10 km a más de 100 km. El ojo está rodeado por un denso anillo de nubes alrededor de 16 km de altura conocida como la pared del ojo, que marca el cinturón de fuertes vientos y lluvias más fuertes.

Los ciclones tropicales extraen su energía de los océanos tropicales cálidos y no forman a menos que la temperatura de la superficie del mar está por encima de 26,5 ° C, aunque una vez formados, pueden persistir durante más bajas temperaturas de la superficie del mar. Los ciclones tropicales pueden persistir durante muchos días y puede seguir caminos muy erráticos. Por lo general, se disipan con los océanos terrestres o menos.

La mayor parte de la costa norte de Australia está cubierta por la red de la Oficina de radar meteorológico. Para obtener imágenes en tiempo real e información de radar, ver: www.bom.gov.au/weather/radar/

Más información: Preguntas frecuentes ciclones tropicales: Definiciones | Características y Formación

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Cyclone peligro y los impactos

Los ciclones tropicales son peligrosos porque producen vientos destructivos, lluvias torrenciales con inundaciones y daños en las mareas de tormenta que pueden causar la inundación de las zonas bajas costeras.

Los ciclones tienen rachas de viento superiores a 90 kmh en torno a sus centros y, en los ciclones más fuertes, ráfagas pueden superar 280 km / h. Estos vientos muy destructivos pueden causar daños a la propiedad y convertir escombros en proyectiles en el aire potencialmente letales. Es importante recordar que, durante el paso del centro del ciclón o de los ojos, habrá una pausa temporal en el viento, pero que esta pronto serán sustituidos por vientos destructivos desde otra dirección.

Las fuertes lluvias asociadas al paso de un ciclón tropical puede producir grandes inundaciones. Esto puede causar más daño y muerte por ahogamiento. Las fuertes lluvias pueden persistir como el ciclón se mueve hacia el interior y se descompone, por lo que las inundaciones debido a un ciclón deteriorado puede ocurrir muy lejos de la costa tropical como los restos de un movimiento ciclónico en partes del centro y sur del continente.

Los vientos destructivos que acompañan a los ciclones tropicales también producen mares fenomenales, que son peligrosas tanto para los buques en alta mar y los amarrados en los puertos. Estos mares también puede causar erosión grave de Foreshores.

Penetraciones del mar y las mareas

Potencialmente, el fenómeno más destructivo asociado a los ciclones tropicales que tocan tierra es la marejada ciclónica. La marejada es una cúpula elevada de agua de 60 a 80 km de diámetro y típicamente de aproximadamente 2 a 5 m más alto que el nivel de la marea normal. Si el pico se produce al mismo tiempo como una marea alta, entonces la zona inundada puede ser bastante amplio, en particular a lo largo de líneas costeras de baja altitud.

Más información: oleada de la tormenta | Preguntas frecuentes ciclones tropicales: Definiciones | Características y Formación

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Tropical categorías de ciclones gravedad

La gravedad de un ciclón tropical se describe en términos de categorías van de 1 a 5 se refiere a la zona de vientos máximos. Una estimación de la gravedad de ciclón está incluido en todos los consejos tropicales. Recuerde que el Servicio de Atención No está diseñado para dar una declaración exacta de las condiciones en emplazamientos concretos, pero dará una idea general de las peores condiciones previstas. Con esta escala de gravedad, las comunidades serán capaces de evaluar el grado de amenaza de ciclón y tomar las medidas oportunas. Daño variará dependiendo de factores tales como:
¿Qué tan lejos está de la zona de vientos máximos;
Como expuso la ubicación es;
Las normas de construcción;
Tipo de vegetación, y
Inundación resultante.

La categoría no se refiere a la cantidad de inundaciones o mareas de tormenta. Si una marea de tormenta se espera que se mencionará separadamente en el aviso de ciclón.



Categoría

Ráfagas de viento (km / h)

Los efectos típicos




1 Ciclón Tropical

A menos de 125 kmh
Gales

Daño mínimo casa. El daño a algunos cultivos, árboles y caravans.Boats puede arrastrar amarres.



2 Ciclón Tropical

125 - 164 kmh
Vientos destructivos

Daño casa Menor. Daño significativo a los signos, los árboles y caravanas. Graves daños a algunos cultivos. El riesgo de fallo de alimentación. Pequeñas embarcaciones pueden romper amarras.



3 ciclón tropical severo

165 - 224 kmh
Vientos muy destructivos

Algunos techo y daños estructurales. Algunas caravanas destruido. Fallo probable.



4 ciclón tropical severo

225 - 279 kmh
Vientos muy destructivos

Techos significativo y daños estructurales. Muchas caravanas destruidas y el viento. Residuos en el aire peligroso. Fallas generalizadas de energía.



5 ciclón tropical severo

Más de 280 kmh
Vientos extremadamente destructivas

Extremadamente peligroso con destrucción generalizada.

http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/about/

Karlox

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Re: Seguimiento Clima actual Global y su previsible evolución

Mensaje por Karlox el Dom Dic 16, 2012 5:32 pm

Finalmente un vistazo al mapa mundial de anomalías en las temperaturas de las superficies de nuestros océanos. Para una temporada intensa de ciclones en el Pacífico, lo primero que debemos detectar es anomalías de temperaturas positivas importantes, que ahora mismo no se ven... Más bien diríase que nuestros oceanos de ambos hemisferios están más frios de media que lo habitual para cada localización y fecha. Ver mapa de Unisys al respecto:

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif

Karlox

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Re: Seguimiento Clima actual Global y su previsible evolución

Mensaje por Contenido patrocinado Hoy a las 1:52 pm


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